Of droughts and flooding rains

New climatalogical research from Monash Uni (below) confirms what many "locals" in rural areas already believed - droughts are often followed by floods, and that 'extreme dries' are associated with 'extreme wets'.

This isn't because more rain is falling, however - it's because of the interaction between the rain that does fall and the other environmental conditions...and, I would add, the social and economic conditions.

In 2003, I spent a year or so studying the 1998 floods in the East Gippsland Shire, focusing in particular on the Tambo Valley, a valley just south of Hotham, in the same general area that this research was conducted. I used the concept of 'vulnerability' to examine the economic, social and environmental root causes of flood disasters, and through a historical analysis found that there was a very clear pattern of drought coinciding with low commodity prices, and being followed by severe flooding. Where fires occurred before rain, the effects would be even worse - what little vegetation remained after years of drought would be further stripped away by fire, and as noted, the black soil would have climatological impacts that would worsen floods.

As I noted in a post a few days ago, the history of my study area showed that when drought coincided with a fall in commodity prices, farmers would avoid de-stocking (because of low-prices), which would result in over-stocking and over-grazing. In addition, their financial constraints would limit their ability to do things like keep rabbits down, fertilise etc. So the state of their farm enterprises - both ecologically and financially - would go deteriorate. When rain finally came, it would fall on the steep hills that characterise the area (and are also found in the Alpine Shire) - these hills would be denuded, the soil compacted, and the rain would run straight off.

Climatological research is obviously vital to emergency management, but it fails to address the social and economic dimensions of vulnerability, which are integral to the environmental dimensions of vulnerability. While the Alpine Shire is likely to be environmentally vulnerable to flooding, individuals and communities in the area are also likely to be socially, psychologically and economically vulnerable. Farmers are already strapped-for-cash due to the drought, and this is likely to have associated impacts on relationships within families, couples and communities. When (or, if you look elsewhere in Australia, the appropriate language might be "if") the rain comes, they're not going to be in the best condition to respond to the costs arising from water damage, nor are they going to be socially and psychologically equipped to bounce back with great ease.

This research points to the need for holistic approaches to emergency management - as environmental conditions that shape people's lives change, so too will their economic and social conditions.

Climate Research at Monash University: Drought and fires trigger worse floods

5 December 2006

It has long been argued that Victoria's weather is growing hotter and drier, now research conducted at Monash University has proved it is getting more extreme.

And with more than 50 fires now blazing throughout the state, it also grows more vulnerable to flooding.

Professor Amanda Lynch, from the Monash Climate Program, has been working with a PhD student, Lee Tryhorn, to establish a database on bushfire and flood events in Victoria. The database records where and when fires have occurred and how significant they were. The same applies to flooding.

"There does seem to be an indication that fires are on the rise across Victoria," Professor Lynch says. "Anecdotally, there are more fires and they are worse than they were in the past. Things have definitely grown drier, the weather has grown warmer and it is more conducive to fires."

But the researchers were surprised to find a link between the rising number of bushfires and an increase in heavy rainfalls and the severity of floods.

"It does seem strange, but it's been found in other parts of the world that while rainfall can be going down, they are still experiencing extreme floods. There are more extreme dries but also more extreme wets."

Ms Tryhorn's study focused on serious bushfires in the Victorian Alpine shire in January 2003 that were followed by thunderstorms and flash flooding, which claimed the life of a local woman. The fires burnt for two months, after several years of below average rainfall.

Significantly, she found that the bushfire and drought conditions actually increased the risk of flooding.

"The soil is hydrophobic; it is very dry and won't absorb water," Professor Lynch says. "It is also black, so that heats the surface and the surface heats the atmosphere above it and that makes the thunderstorms more intense."

The finding has implications for handling bushfire emergencies, particularly in the Alpine regions, she says.

"We can say that emergency preparedness should include the potential for flash flooding after fires in alpine regions. That's what we are telling the locals. With an enhanced bushfire season there is always the potential for more of these, but given the drought, there simply may not be enough moisture. The effects of fire last for several months, so if the drought breaks there may be a problem."

For more information please call Renee Barnes, Media and Communications on 9905 2020 or 0413 753 366.

2006 Housing Rights Awards

COHRE MEDIA RELEASE

Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece Cited for Severe Human Rights Violations by Housing Rights Group

Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece, have been named as recipients of the 2006 Housing Rights Violator Awards by the Geneva-based Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions (COHRE), for their systematic violation of housing rights and continued failure to abide by their international legal obligations. At the same time, COHRE has presented seven courageous Chinese Human Rights activists with the 2006 Housing Rights Defender Awards.

Each year, COHRE bestows its Housing Rights Violator Awards on three governments or public institutions guilty of particularly serious housing rights violations in the preceding year. COHRE has issued it Violator Awards since 2002.

COHRE’s Executive Director (a.i), Jean du Plessis, said, “Although many governments continue to violate the right to adequate housing, in 2006 Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece stand out for their appalling disregard for this basic human right. The Nigerian Government has forcibly evicted more than two million people from their homes since 2000. Although the Nigerian Constitution affirms that: 'the State shall direct its policy towards ensuring...that suitable and adequate shelter...are provided for all citizens', the Federal Government has consistently neglected its responsibilities and violated its obligations under international law, including the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. These widespread and ongoing evictions in Nigeria have resulted in the massive displacement of millions of people, with a spiralling effect on health, education, employment and family cohesion.”

“The Government of the Philippines continues to evict hundreds of thousands of people in the name of ‘beautification’ and ‘development’, with the urban poor being the worst affected. More than 145,000 people (29,000 families) have already been evicted from their homes in Metro Manila and Bulacan province since early 2005 due to the rehabilitation of the Philippines National Railway system, referred to as the 'Northrail-Southrail Linkage Project.’ COHRE’s research reveals that most of the evictees have been moved to relocation sites where living conditions are appalling due to a lack of basic services such as potable water, electricity and sanitation facilities. The unsanitary conditions and an outbreak of dengue fever at the Southville relocation site in Cabuyao have claimed the lives of 12 infants and children this year. Forced evictions and demolitions are also being carried out in preparation for the 12th ASEAN Summit to be hosted by the Philippines next week. The evictions and demolition in Metro Cebu have left more than 3,000 people homeless since September 2006,” he said.

Du Plessis added, “Roma communities in Greece continue to face pervasive and persistent discrimination in access to housing. A majority of Roma in Greece live in extremely poor conditions - lacking access to basic services such as water and electricity - and frequently face segregation and forced eviction by local authorities. The conditions in which these communities live are dehumanising and constitute a grave human rights violation by the Government of Greece. It is completely unacceptable for a long-standing member of the European Union (EU) to allow such a situation to continue within its borders. What we are facing here is the blatant and deliberate exclusion of a particular group, creating a third world reality within a wealthy European State. The shacks of the Roma in Patras, Athens or Asproprygos are no different from those in slums in Nairobi or Manila. These evictions clearly indicate that the Greek government is not taking its international legal obligations seriously and is turning a blind eye to local governments' systematic abuse of the human rights of Roma in Greece.”

The Housing Rights Defender Award is presented annually by COHRE to an individual who has shown outstanding commitment to the realisation of housing rights for all people. For the first time since the inception of this award in 2003, it will be presented to a number of housing rights activists rather than a single person. The joint recipients of the 2006 Housing Rights Defender Award are: Fu Xiancai; Ma Yalian; Liu Zhengyou; Huang Weizhong; Chen Xiaoming; Xu Zhengqing; and Zheng Enchong.

Du Plessis, said, “These seven Chinese activists have displayed exemplary commitment, courage and perseverance in their struggles for the land and housing rights of hundreds of farmers, workers and residents in China. They are inspirational examples to every person, community and organisation working for the cause of human rights around the world. The Chinese Government is notoriously oppressive towards human rights activists. Land and housing rights violations including mass forced evictions are common, while legal remedies are scarce for those seeking to assert their rights. The work of these activists, undertaken at grave personal risk to them, their families and fellow activists, has played a catalytic role in bringing to light the unjust practices of the Chinese Government. COHRE is therefore honoured to present the 2006 Housing Rights Defender Award to: Fu Xiancai; Ma Yalian; Liu Zhengyou; Huang Weizhong; Chen Xiaoming; Xu Zhengqing; and Zheng Enchong for their fearless commitment to housing rights in an environment that is hostile to such ideals.”

COHRE’s Housing Rights Protector Award, presented annually to a government or other public institution demonstrating a truly exceptional commitment to the protection and promotion of housing rights, has not been awarded this year as there is no clear worthy candidate.

Du Plessis said, “Despite the widespread recognition of the human right to adequate housing in international law, violations continue to occur on a massive scale both in the developed and developing worlds. This year, COHRE could not identify a government or public institution that is worthy of recognition for its commitment to the protection and promotion of housing rights. There are good legislative, policy and implementation programmes underway in numerous countries, which do promote the cause of housing rights to some degree, but after careful consideration we came to the conclusion that none of these were sufficiently path-breaking to qualify as a convincing candidate for housing rights protector. The dearth of contenders for the 2006 Housing Rights Protector Award is a clear indicator that more convincing and dramatic examples of housing rights protection are needed to make a sustainable impact in successfully addressing the land and housing rights challenges facing countries today.”

A newly released COHRE report, Forced Evictions: Violations of Human Rights – Global Survey No. 10, reveals that nearly 2 million people in Africa and over 2.1 million people in Asia and the Pacific have been forcibly evicted from their homes since 2003. Furthermore, nearly 153,000 people in the Americas and over 16,000 people in Europe have been evicted from their homes in the same period.

“The most disturbing aspect of these numbers, is the fact that they are just a sample, based on our research of media reports, and evictions reported to COHRE either by affected persons or by members of our growing global network of partners in the struggle against forced evictions. The total given is merely the tip of the iceberg. The world is, clearly, in the midst of a housing rights and evictions crisis, caused by the fact that governments in both developed and developing countries are not taking their international legal obligations seriously,” said Du Plessis.”

For interviews with Jean du Plessis or additional information please contact COHRE’s Media Officer, Radhika Satkunanathan on +41-22-7341028, +61-400-899474 or media@cohre.org