Of droughts and flooding rains

New climatalogical research from Monash Uni (below) confirms what many "locals" in rural areas already believed - droughts are often followed by floods, and that 'extreme dries' are associated with 'extreme wets'.

This isn't because more rain is falling, however - it's because of the interaction between the rain that does fall and the other environmental conditions...and, I would add, the social and economic conditions.

In 2003, I spent a year or so studying the 1998 floods in the East Gippsland Shire, focusing in particular on the Tambo Valley, a valley just south of Hotham, in the same general area that this research was conducted. I used the concept of 'vulnerability' to examine the economic, social and environmental root causes of flood disasters, and through a historical analysis found that there was a very clear pattern of drought coinciding with low commodity prices, and being followed by severe flooding. Where fires occurred before rain, the effects would be even worse - what little vegetation remained after years of drought would be further stripped away by fire, and as noted, the black soil would have climatological impacts that would worsen floods.

As I noted in a post a few days ago, the history of my study area showed that when drought coincided with a fall in commodity prices, farmers would avoid de-stocking (because of low-prices), which would result in over-stocking and over-grazing. In addition, their financial constraints would limit their ability to do things like keep rabbits down, fertilise etc. So the state of their farm enterprises - both ecologically and financially - would go deteriorate. When rain finally came, it would fall on the steep hills that characterise the area (and are also found in the Alpine Shire) - these hills would be denuded, the soil compacted, and the rain would run straight off.

Climatological research is obviously vital to emergency management, but it fails to address the social and economic dimensions of vulnerability, which are integral to the environmental dimensions of vulnerability. While the Alpine Shire is likely to be environmentally vulnerable to flooding, individuals and communities in the area are also likely to be socially, psychologically and economically vulnerable. Farmers are already strapped-for-cash due to the drought, and this is likely to have associated impacts on relationships within families, couples and communities. When (or, if you look elsewhere in Australia, the appropriate language might be "if") the rain comes, they're not going to be in the best condition to respond to the costs arising from water damage, nor are they going to be socially and psychologically equipped to bounce back with great ease.

This research points to the need for holistic approaches to emergency management - as environmental conditions that shape people's lives change, so too will their economic and social conditions.

Climate Research at Monash University: Drought and fires trigger worse floods

5 December 2006

It has long been argued that Victoria's weather is growing hotter and drier, now research conducted at Monash University has proved it is getting more extreme.

And with more than 50 fires now blazing throughout the state, it also grows more vulnerable to flooding.

Professor Amanda Lynch, from the Monash Climate Program, has been working with a PhD student, Lee Tryhorn, to establish a database on bushfire and flood events in Victoria. The database records where and when fires have occurred and how significant they were. The same applies to flooding.

"There does seem to be an indication that fires are on the rise across Victoria," Professor Lynch says. "Anecdotally, there are more fires and they are worse than they were in the past. Things have definitely grown drier, the weather has grown warmer and it is more conducive to fires."

But the researchers were surprised to find a link between the rising number of bushfires and an increase in heavy rainfalls and the severity of floods.

"It does seem strange, but it's been found in other parts of the world that while rainfall can be going down, they are still experiencing extreme floods. There are more extreme dries but also more extreme wets."

Ms Tryhorn's study focused on serious bushfires in the Victorian Alpine shire in January 2003 that were followed by thunderstorms and flash flooding, which claimed the life of a local woman. The fires burnt for two months, after several years of below average rainfall.

Significantly, she found that the bushfire and drought conditions actually increased the risk of flooding.

"The soil is hydrophobic; it is very dry and won't absorb water," Professor Lynch says. "It is also black, so that heats the surface and the surface heats the atmosphere above it and that makes the thunderstorms more intense."

The finding has implications for handling bushfire emergencies, particularly in the Alpine regions, she says.

"We can say that emergency preparedness should include the potential for flash flooding after fires in alpine regions. That's what we are telling the locals. With an enhanced bushfire season there is always the potential for more of these, but given the drought, there simply may not be enough moisture. The effects of fire last for several months, so if the drought breaks there may be a problem."

For more information please call Renee Barnes, Media and Communications on 9905 2020 or 0413 753 366.

2006 Housing Rights Awards

COHRE MEDIA RELEASE

Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece Cited for Severe Human Rights Violations by Housing Rights Group

Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece, have been named as recipients of the 2006 Housing Rights Violator Awards by the Geneva-based Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions (COHRE), for their systematic violation of housing rights and continued failure to abide by their international legal obligations. At the same time, COHRE has presented seven courageous Chinese Human Rights activists with the 2006 Housing Rights Defender Awards.

Each year, COHRE bestows its Housing Rights Violator Awards on three governments or public institutions guilty of particularly serious housing rights violations in the preceding year. COHRE has issued it Violator Awards since 2002.

COHRE’s Executive Director (a.i), Jean du Plessis, said, “Although many governments continue to violate the right to adequate housing, in 2006 Nigeria, the Philippines and Greece stand out for their appalling disregard for this basic human right. The Nigerian Government has forcibly evicted more than two million people from their homes since 2000. Although the Nigerian Constitution affirms that: 'the State shall direct its policy towards ensuring...that suitable and adequate shelter...are provided for all citizens', the Federal Government has consistently neglected its responsibilities and violated its obligations under international law, including the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. These widespread and ongoing evictions in Nigeria have resulted in the massive displacement of millions of people, with a spiralling effect on health, education, employment and family cohesion.”

“The Government of the Philippines continues to evict hundreds of thousands of people in the name of ‘beautification’ and ‘development’, with the urban poor being the worst affected. More than 145,000 people (29,000 families) have already been evicted from their homes in Metro Manila and Bulacan province since early 2005 due to the rehabilitation of the Philippines National Railway system, referred to as the 'Northrail-Southrail Linkage Project.’ COHRE’s research reveals that most of the evictees have been moved to relocation sites where living conditions are appalling due to a lack of basic services such as potable water, electricity and sanitation facilities. The unsanitary conditions and an outbreak of dengue fever at the Southville relocation site in Cabuyao have claimed the lives of 12 infants and children this year. Forced evictions and demolitions are also being carried out in preparation for the 12th ASEAN Summit to be hosted by the Philippines next week. The evictions and demolition in Metro Cebu have left more than 3,000 people homeless since September 2006,” he said.

Du Plessis added, “Roma communities in Greece continue to face pervasive and persistent discrimination in access to housing. A majority of Roma in Greece live in extremely poor conditions - lacking access to basic services such as water and electricity - and frequently face segregation and forced eviction by local authorities. The conditions in which these communities live are dehumanising and constitute a grave human rights violation by the Government of Greece. It is completely unacceptable for a long-standing member of the European Union (EU) to allow such a situation to continue within its borders. What we are facing here is the blatant and deliberate exclusion of a particular group, creating a third world reality within a wealthy European State. The shacks of the Roma in Patras, Athens or Asproprygos are no different from those in slums in Nairobi or Manila. These evictions clearly indicate that the Greek government is not taking its international legal obligations seriously and is turning a blind eye to local governments' systematic abuse of the human rights of Roma in Greece.”

The Housing Rights Defender Award is presented annually by COHRE to an individual who has shown outstanding commitment to the realisation of housing rights for all people. For the first time since the inception of this award in 2003, it will be presented to a number of housing rights activists rather than a single person. The joint recipients of the 2006 Housing Rights Defender Award are: Fu Xiancai; Ma Yalian; Liu Zhengyou; Huang Weizhong; Chen Xiaoming; Xu Zhengqing; and Zheng Enchong.

Du Plessis, said, “These seven Chinese activists have displayed exemplary commitment, courage and perseverance in their struggles for the land and housing rights of hundreds of farmers, workers and residents in China. They are inspirational examples to every person, community and organisation working for the cause of human rights around the world. The Chinese Government is notoriously oppressive towards human rights activists. Land and housing rights violations including mass forced evictions are common, while legal remedies are scarce for those seeking to assert their rights. The work of these activists, undertaken at grave personal risk to them, their families and fellow activists, has played a catalytic role in bringing to light the unjust practices of the Chinese Government. COHRE is therefore honoured to present the 2006 Housing Rights Defender Award to: Fu Xiancai; Ma Yalian; Liu Zhengyou; Huang Weizhong; Chen Xiaoming; Xu Zhengqing; and Zheng Enchong for their fearless commitment to housing rights in an environment that is hostile to such ideals.”

COHRE’s Housing Rights Protector Award, presented annually to a government or other public institution demonstrating a truly exceptional commitment to the protection and promotion of housing rights, has not been awarded this year as there is no clear worthy candidate.

Du Plessis said, “Despite the widespread recognition of the human right to adequate housing in international law, violations continue to occur on a massive scale both in the developed and developing worlds. This year, COHRE could not identify a government or public institution that is worthy of recognition for its commitment to the protection and promotion of housing rights. There are good legislative, policy and implementation programmes underway in numerous countries, which do promote the cause of housing rights to some degree, but after careful consideration we came to the conclusion that none of these were sufficiently path-breaking to qualify as a convincing candidate for housing rights protector. The dearth of contenders for the 2006 Housing Rights Protector Award is a clear indicator that more convincing and dramatic examples of housing rights protection are needed to make a sustainable impact in successfully addressing the land and housing rights challenges facing countries today.”

A newly released COHRE report, Forced Evictions: Violations of Human Rights – Global Survey No. 10, reveals that nearly 2 million people in Africa and over 2.1 million people in Asia and the Pacific have been forcibly evicted from their homes since 2003. Furthermore, nearly 153,000 people in the Americas and over 16,000 people in Europe have been evicted from their homes in the same period.

“The most disturbing aspect of these numbers, is the fact that they are just a sample, based on our research of media reports, and evictions reported to COHRE either by affected persons or by members of our growing global network of partners in the struggle against forced evictions. The total given is merely the tip of the iceberg. The world is, clearly, in the midst of a housing rights and evictions crisis, caused by the fact that governments in both developed and developing countries are not taking their international legal obligations seriously,” said Du Plessis.”

For interviews with Jean du Plessis or additional information please contact COHRE’s Media Officer, Radhika Satkunanathan on +41-22-7341028, +61-400-899474 or media@cohre.org

The only time we'll ever make a women's magazine...

...yep, there's a pic of Glamazons Wei and Bec in the latest Frankie magazine.

Heh heh...who ever thought academia would get you covered by a fashion mag?!

We were hoping for free clothes, but unfortunately there weren't any. You can see the bit on us (which appears as part of a longer aticle in Frankie) on Benjamin Law's website (click image below).

What's farming got to do with it?

Farmer Jess is laughing about the fact that her Masters in Humanitarian Action will actually result in a Masters in Ag Science...so what's Ag Science got to do with humanitarian action?

Several years ago I undertook an in-depth analysis of vulnerability in the Tambo Valley, located in East Gippsland Shire, in north-east Victoria. While focusing on the underlying root causes of the 1998 flood disaster, I found that historical analysis showed a pretty clear pattern - when a drop in commodity prices coincided with drought, farmers would over-stock their land because they didn't want to sell their stock at such low prices. This would compound the effects of drought, resulting in over-grazing, which is particularly problematic in this area, which is characterised by very steep terrain and poor quality soils. Financial constraints of farmers limited their ability to maintain their farms, so rabbit numbers would increase. The small populations have - at least since the end of the gold mining era - been vulnerable to any economic change, and the entire community would suffer as farmers did. Sometimes, bushfires would occur before the drought broke, denuding the landscape even further. When the drought did finally break, it would often do so with torrential rain, which would tear down the steep, denuded slopes, taking with it the valuable top soil and leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. These patterns aren't unique to the Tambo Valley, or even to Australian contexts - similar patterns can be found in many places throughout the world. Since natural disasters are intimitely related to the ways we use the land and other resources, the link between agricultural science and humanitarian action doesn't seem a particularly tenuous one to me. Indeed, since many civil conflicts stem from the struggle for secure livelihoods, I think it's often going to be helpful to understanding the root causes of civil conflict too.

An interesting article that again raises the links between livelihood security and vulnerability to natural disaster in the Australian context was published in The Age yesterday: Fire hits drought-ravaged farm. The phrase, "it's just one thing after another" was one I heard regularly while conducting my research in the Tambo Valley - again and again, people said "it was just one thing after another", and similarly, I regularly heard the phrase "it was the straw that broke the camel's back" to describe "The Big Flood" of 1998. Here, fire has hit farmers already struggling to cope with the effects of the drought - in academic-speak, they were already vulnerable, they had more limited resilience and their coping mechanisms were already weakened by the drought.

Stay...or Go?

Fires start early this year...and so far the death toll is already at 1. It's going to be a bad summer, and new research shows that bushfires cause the greatest number of deaths and injuries of any natural disaster in Australia.

For some of the most recent and best thinking on bushfires, check out the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre. There are some fantastic resources on what you should do in preparation for or during a bushfire, including the background briefings for fire managers here.

See also this note on a recent workshop I was involved in, looking at the legal and other aspects of 'Stay or Go' policies and community warnings.

Man Dies Protecting House from Bushfire
By 7 News

A man has died while trying to protect his home from encroaching bushfires, as wind changes overnight increased the risk of blazes burning out of control in New South Wales.

Police say the unnamed man was overcome by smoke and flames on his rural property near Nelligan, on the NSW south coast late on Tuesday.

Dozens of bushfires are burning across the south east of Australia, but improved weather conditions in Victoria and South Australia mean the danger of flames spreading to homes there has decreased.

Around 4,000 firefighters worked through the night in South Australia, where 60 fires are burning.

And in Victoria, a total fire ban has been lifted after crews managed to contain a blaze which has burnt out more than 9,000 hectares in the west of the state.

But in New South Wales, unpredictable winds have hampered firefighters' efforts to tackle blazes which are raging across the state.

Firefighters in the Blue Mountains are urging householders to fire-proof their homes and prepare for the worst, as a fire which has already destroyed 14,500 hectares of park and private land continues to burn out of control.

Attempts to contain the flames by backburning overnight failed, and the state's Rural Fire Service is expecting further trouble on Wednesday, in the face of difficult winds and hot weather.

"It is very difficult," said Gillian Katz, of the NSW Rural Fire Brigade. "The wind has changed direction nearly every 10 minutes, it's making it very hard to predict the fire paths but there are some known fire paths through the Gore Valley that could be where the fire goes."

More than 40 water-bombing aircraft will be working to put out flames across New South Wales on Wednesday, 15 in the Blue Mountains alone.

A number of roads in the region have been closed, and heavy smoke is affecting driving conditions across the area - motorists are advised to take care. The Blue Mountains National Park is shut until further notice.

In Vanuatu, watching events in Tonga

I've left this far too long, but internet access is intermittent, expensive, and sloooooooow...

Tongan news can be found at Tonga Now. I'll update this post with some commentary once I have permission to publish it. I'm definitely no expert on anything to do with Tonga - I've never even been there for starters. It does, however, strike me that the recent riots bear similarities to those occurring elsewhere. While some commentators understand the riots in Tonga as an expression of pro-democracy sentiments, others see a link between urbanisation, poverty, the youth bulge, and the anger of young men that have limited or no access to education and employment. Some months ago I posted about the links between demography, livelihood security and civil security, drawing a link between Honiara and some Australian indigenous communities...and Port Moresby could be added to the list, as could Suva. But I'm out of my depth here...for better informed voices than mine, see:

This article from Radio New Zealand International; this article in Pacific Eye by the Director of the Tonga National Youth Congress; and this article, also in Pacific Eye, in which five youths involved in the riots were interviewed.

Speaking of youth, disenfranchisement, and anger...Vanuatu was recently found to be the "happiest nation on earth", and there are posters in the airport and copies of newspaper articles pasted to plenty of windows, but one can't help but wonder how long that 'happiness' is going to last. Local people working in NGOs certainly raise their eyebrows in bemusement when one brings up the subject, and here - as is the case in so many other places - one finds the "youth bulge", limited access to employment (at least in the formal economy - there's also the 'custom economy') and limited access to education. Here too there are young people moving to the urban areas in search of education and employment, and many are moving into informal settlements - it's not appropriate to call them 'squatter' settlements, as in many cases people from other islands are invited in to act as caretakers for the land by the customary landowners.

Last night I had dinner in the market with a new friend, at her mother's food stall. We watched the evening's devotions and chatted about our lives, faith and partners over a spectacular meal of Vanuatu steak, cucumber salad and tomato. We shared stories until late into the night, and I was reminded that despite the sometimes massive cultural differences, some things are universal. Her mother hugged me goodbye and told me to come back soon, and I felt the warm rush of being cared for despite being so new - a feeling I haven't really felt since I was in the Solomon Islands, where an Aunty I was only just getting to know sat up all night massaging me and wiping the sweat from my face as I struggled through a feverish night. As in the Solomons, I'm suddenly, beautifully aware of my identity as a woman, sharing specifically female aspirations and views with other women. I know who I am here, despite not wearing makeup, having long hair or particularly pretty clothes - I don't discount the fact that gender norms can be stifling and discriminating, but in my own society, femininity is often marked by whether a woman wears a dress or lipstick. The experiences of other women are undoubtedly different, but as a white, Western woman (and therefore sometimes considered an 'honorary male'), I have found working in highly-gendered societies liberating in the sense that I find myself returning to Australia with a stronger sense of womanhood and identity.

There's an older, white Australian guy staying in the hotel I'm staying at in Vila. I over-heard him talking to the staff they other day - they asked him whether he'd see his "girlfriend" today, and he laughed and said, "no, I'll have a new girlfriend today". I've been avoiding him ever since. Last night, I shared the cool night breeze, fresh peanuts and stories with a couple of the girls working in the hotel, and they filled me in further. Apparently this guy takes to the streets several times a day, starts chatting to some local woman, invites her back to the hotel saying he's lonely and he wants someone to share a sandwich with him, and once inside the room he propositions them. The girls - who are ni-Vanuatu themselves - explained that the ni-Vanuatu women are so friendly, that when this older, white Australian guy starts talking to them and saying how lonely he is, they believe him "because he's so old", and they feel sorry for him, "because he's so old", and so, they follow him back to share a sandwich. Apparently several of the women have run out of the room screaming, and then through reception where they have given a garbled account of these events to the girls at reception. I was furious, but began to see the (only slightly) funnier side of things once I confirmed with the girls that nobody has been "hurt". Yet.

I told the girls I'd heard the earlier conversation between this man and themselves, and they suddenly smiled weakly as they realised why I'd been behaving so differently when he was around, and when he was not. They were quite concerned that I felt safe staying in the hotel - I assured them that I did, and explained that I thought that he was nothing but a disgusting, sad old man. It's hard to know what to do - in fact it's hard to even know whether this man is picking up 'working women', or whether he is indeed picking up women who are just strolling down the street minding their own business.

Squatter conference, U2 concert, and conversations in immigration queues

Last week I attended quite an inspirational conference sponsored by the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat on squatter settlements in Fiji. It was attended by squatters, and key people from government and non-government agencies working with squatters and on squatter settlement issues - it was extremely interesting to say the least, but I won't say any more as I imagine a report will be coming out some time soon. There's a paper from the last workshop that I'll try and link when I have time. There's also an interesting paper here:

Urban Squatters, Informal Sector and Livelihood Strategies of Poor in Fiji Islands - Manoranjan Mohanty

Flying back home for the U2 concert did my head in a bit - it was quite difficult going from discussing living conditions with squatters to a huge, over-the-top concert, even if it is lead by a band that's done at least a little for raising awareness of how "the other 80% live". Seeing a map of the African continent flashed across the screen while Bono talked about how we in the UK, the US and Australia need to be aware of the plight of Africa was a little difficult - Africa will be drowning under the weight of poorly-thought out aid soon, and there are millions of people in South and Central America, Asia and the South Pacific that are struggling for survival also.

I made the mistake of buying Marie Claire for my flight to Port Vila this morning - it featured a piece on St Tropez and the outrageous amounts people - including Bono - fork out for the luxury of hanging out there. I can't help but feel frustrated and disillusioned by the fact that there are celebrities like Bono who rant and rave about the plight of the poor, yet holiday at places where there's a requirement that you buy a $1000+ bottle of champagne every hour that you're lounging on the beach.

Touch down in Vila, and I find myself conversing with a middle-aged guy who's come over to go diving. He asks me what I'm doing here, and I explain that I'm working for an NGO. He looks surprised, and asks "what, are there poor people here?" I explain that yes, there's very limited health care, and people die of easily preventable diseases, and that malnutrition is a growing problem. I then say that there's many people in Vila living in appalling conditions in squatter settlements. He's visibly saddened by our short, shallow conversation, shaking his head and muttering "we just have no idea, do we? we have no idea..."

No, we do not.

Edit 23/11/06...I loved this final paragraph from an article on U2 in today's The Age: "Befitting the biggest band in the world, U2 spent the first week of their Australian tour at the exclusive five-star Palazzo Versace Resort on the Gold Coast and commuted between Brisbane via private jet, helicopter and limousine for rehearsals."

Hmmmm....U2, doin' their bit for global warming and the poor!

Suva

Yesterday started with a rather amusing trip to the bus station in Nadi, where I intended to catch a bus to Suva (FD$10) but instead got waylaid by a persuasive taxi driver. Anyway, after waiting around for a while, we got enough people in the taxi to make it affordable, and off we went. As always, travelling like a local (albeit a wealthy one - most Fijians couldn't easily afford the $30 it cost us to get to Suva) was a good way to pick up a few tips on safety, and the conversations provided a wealth of information for my research. :)

So - once I'd got settled, I wandered about, went to a meeting, and then spent the afternoon bugging reception by making phone calls (phone calls have to be made by reception, and I made about 25 in the space of an hour!). Today I had back to back meetings...

I caught a glimpse of myself this morning and laughed, as I realised it only takes a day or two for me to pick up that solid walk, walking from the hips with arms swinging by my side...

Squatter settlements are clearly a growing problem in Fiji - it's all anyone will talk about with me (they're less interested in housing, sanitation etc in rural areas), and the numbers demonstrate why. I'm told that many of the resettlement programs are funded by aid - perhaps AusAID or NZAid (this is what I'm told, but I haven't confirmed it). Squatters are evicted (with some notice, it has to be said) and moved elsewhere...problem is, the new settlement often has plenty of physical infrastructure (water, roads etc) but no social infrastructure (schools, healthcare etc). On top of that is the fact that many of the squatters are single parent families, headed by women...in patriarchal and generally patrilineal Fiji, a woman estranged from her husband is particularly vulnerable, and with the exception of the lucky few, most have no option but to move to an urban centre and squat.

It's 5pm, which means I should be heading somewhere to eat and then catching a taxi back...I've only been here for a day and a half, but already I've been told numerous times not to wander the streets after about 5-5.30 pm. I've obviously never been here before, but there's plenty of anecdotal evidence as to how Suva has changed in the last decade. This shouldn't be a surprise -rapid urbanisation, growing poverty, and huge numbers of bored youth...what more could be expected?

First time in Fiji...

I've just arrived in Nadi...this is going to be a rambling post riddled with grammatical errors (sorry Mum!) I'm desperate to go to bed, but want to get my impressions down...

Initial impressions...we fly in low, and I press my face against the window to catch a glimpse of the landscape that blends in with the night sky and the ocean that surrounds it...the darkness is dotted with orange fires which for an instance I imagine might be volcanoes, then I realise they're fires...but there's so many of them.

Arriving at the airport, I realise just how different Nadi is to the two Melanesian cities I've visited before, Port Vila (Vanuatu) and Honiara (Solomon Islands). Firstly, the boys playing ukelele and singing look...professional? polished? Secondly - sadly, Nadi airport lacks the camp voices that have brought a huge grin to my face elsewhere. Thirdly - everyone in customs etc seems so damn bored. I don't blame them - there's more tourists than I've seen since Bangkok, many of them incredibly young blondes (21? 22? 23 at most) who, from the wedding rings on their fingers, I imagine to be there for their honeymoons.

I get out and go to the tourism desk, then realise that it's not entirely government run, but directs you to travel agents. Two Fijian women get me a hotel room, call the bus...twice...and it's then that I realise that I'm really in Fiji, and not Thailand, because the bus takes more than half an hour to make the 5 minute trip. I chat with the young Indo-Fijian driver on the way - he says most people in Fiji don't own land (hmm, some of that Indo-Fijian perspective there?), and that land issues are bigger on the western side of the island where all the farmers are. I later read that land issues are different on the western side because leadership/governance has been handled differently.

According to him, there's lots of development and therefore plenty of housing in Suva (hmmm...a reminder that stats are important, and that government officials as well as those "at the grassroots" are worth talking to!). He wanted to know whether I'd have time to visit people in their homes - shame-faced, I had to tell him no. I'm sure my explanation - that I have very little time, and that I need to talk to people in NGOs on this trip - went down like a lead balloon (and fair call, too!) According to this young Indo-Fijian (who, I must add, seemed to have at least a little pent-up frustration!), the Fijian landowners come around towards the end of a lease, and put the rent up massively, and then when the lessors can't or won't pay, evict them. He said that "if you leave your clothes out, they will move in and take over your house". I'm not sure what that means exactly, but his sentiment was clear.

This young guy also said that Fijians are now claiming rights over the sea too, and he expressed his frustration that they want to make people pay for access to the beach, to swim etc.

Oh...those fires?? He told me that they're fires in the sugar cane fields. Apparently the harvesting season is drawing to a close, because hurricane season is about to start. :)

EastWeb Gig

These guys are doing good stuff...

PM's stance on climate change immoral

By Robyn Eckersley
November 8, 2006

Prime Minister John Howard has long maintained the Kyoto Protocol is flawed because it excludes major carbon emitters in the developing world. In Parliament last week, in defiance of the British Stern report, he declared that it would be foolish for Australia to embark on a carbon trading scheme, because developing countries would enjoy a free ride at our expense.

Yet the Prime Minister's stance directly contravenes Australia's obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992. The fundamental environmental justice principle running through this convention, which Australia has signed and ratified, is that parties should take steps to protect the climate "on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities" (article 3(1)). The convention provides that developed countries must "take the lead in combating climate change". Developed countries have benefited from a long history of exploiting fossil fuels and are responsible for the bulk of past emissions. They also have a greater economic capacity to absorb emission reductions and develop technological alternatives.

These environmental justice principles also served as the cornerstone of the Berlin mandate, which framed the negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol. Developing countries, including growing aggregate emitters such as China, are not expected to undertake mandatory emissions reduction until developed countries have shown the way. For the Prime Minister to maintain that the protocol is flawed because it allows free riders, flies in the face of the principles of the Kyoto Protocol's parent convention. The main reason the Kyoto Protocol is suboptimal, in both environmental and political terms, is because the world's biggest aggregate carbon polluter (the US) and the world's second biggest per capita carbon polluter (Australia) have defected.

The idea that a rich country such as Australia should not reduce its oversized per capita carbon footprint unless poorer countries also take measures to reduce their tiny per capita footprint is to kick the ladder down. It denies poorer countries the opportunity to improve the livelihoods of their peoples and avoids Australia's obligations under the convention. Such a stance is morally and politically unjustifiable.

Robyn Eckersley teaches global politics at the University of Melbourne.

The economics of climate change...disasters and development...you join the dots...

So...everyone's talking about the Economics of Climate Change, the report compiled by Nicholas Stern, former World Bank Chief Economist on the Economics of Climate Change. You can download the whole report in pdf form here.

It's an accessible, well-argued, well-substantiated report outlining the overwhelming scientific evidence that climate change is a serious global threat and demands urgent, global reponses to combat that threat. As Wei puts it,

Warning! - Your risk to natural disasters is on the rise. We are seriously screwed... if you can't swim, at least learn to paddle.

If you live in a low lying area, take heed now and move to higher ground - if it's not a tsunami, the surf will be lapping on your rooftops by some time around 2035-50. Register now to become an 'environmental refugee', we will put you in a detention centre under the sea. It will be just like Finding Nemo!

Our esteemed Prime Minister has, however, warned us not to be mesmerised by the report. Don't worry Mr Howard, I'm not mesmerised - just wondering whether I should stop thinking about having kids so as to spare them the future. At least one of my friends has decided he's never going to have them, for that very reason. I used to think he was being paranoid and a hypochondriac...

The report makes the links between development and disasters clear:

Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.

Using the results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.

So in other words...climate change is associated with increased hazards, threats, risks, and that's going to have consequences for levels of social and economic development. Duh.

Not only is it going to cost us in financial terms, but it's actually CHEAPER to do something now!

In contrast, the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.

As usual, hazard events are going to hit the most vulnerable hardest, so they're going to cop the brunt of the consequences of us in the wealthy west having long showers, watching hours of widescreen tv, having the air con on even when it's only 25 outside, and driving our nice cars down to the shops for milk...

The most vulnerable - the poorest countries and populations - will suffer earliest and most, even though they have contributed least to the causes of climate change

And finally...

The scale of the challenge posed by climate change and adaptation makes it more urgent than ever that donor countries honour their commitments… Meeting the Millennium Development Goals already requires international assistance to support action by developing countries. Climate change - and the need for adaptation - will pose an additional challenge for countries’ growth and poverty reduction ambitions… Scaling up development assistance will therefore be essential.

So, now that you're feeling thoroughly depressed, there is something really easy to do...TOMORROW!!


WALK AGAINST WARMING

Temperatures rise in Fiji

Some of the alerts arriving in my inbox...

On another note, despite suggestions to the contrary on the DFAT website, nobody seems to think much is going on in the Solomon Islands. Phew!


WEDNESDAY 5PM 1 NOVEMBER 2006

FIJI'S PRIME MINISTERS OFFICE: PRIME MINISTER LAISENIA QARASE

WEDNESDAY 1 NOVEMBER 2006

ADDRESS TO THE NATION

Good evening my fellow citizens.

I address you this evening about events involving the Republic of Fiji Military Forces that are causing so much anxiety, uncertainty, and fear in our land. This is related specifically to public threats by the Commander of the Army to overthrow the elected Government of Fiji. This is the Government I was given the mandate to lead in the May General Election.

I can affirm that the Police are continuing their investigations into the threats by the Commander. I expect that the Army will respect the authority of the Police and will fully cooperate in these investigations.

Now, over the past few months, I have exercised great patience in my attitude to the various statements by the Commander, condemning the Government for a whole variety of reasons.

Following developments yesterday and renewed threats as reported in the media, I called meetings this morning of the National Security Council and the Multi-Party Cabinet, comprising SDL and Fiji Labour Party Ministers.

I now wish to explain the actions we are taking.

To begin with, let me take you back to a meeting convened earlier this year by His Excellency the Vice President, in his capacity as Acting President. I attended that meeting along with the Commander of the RFMF. Its purpose was to create a positive and open atmosphere for dialogue on issues of concern raised by the Military. I readily agreed to this because I have always favoured this approach to solving problems. It is consistent with the good-faith principles called for by our Constitution for settling differences.

There was also agreement that the Commander would not make public statements without clearing them first with the Prime Minister.

I met with the Commander under these arrangements. The problem that immediately arose was he expected me to virtually follow his orders.

As Head of a democratically- elected Government I could not do that.

It wasn¢t long before the Commander again began to go public, in breach of the agreement he had reached with the Acting President and me.

To justify this, he attempted to argue that the Army had a broad mandate to ensure the well being of Fiji and its people. This, he claimed, had been transferred to the 1997 Constitution from the 1990 document.

The prevailing view among legal experts, however, is that the Commander¢s interpretation is wrong.

Our present Constitution legitimises the existence of the RFMF, but not the broadened responsibilities given to it in the 1990 Constitution. In other words, the constitutional and statutory authority of the RFMF is strictly confined to maintaining and safeguarding national security within a democracy.

The Cabinet, therefore, decided to seek clarification from the Supreme Court on the role of the Military. This was a reasonable position to take, given the circumstances. It also reflected our desire for a conclusive legal finding. The Constitution allows for this procedure.

The Minister of Home Affairs was asked to consult with the RFMF to establish joint terms of reference for the approach to the Supreme Court.

The Army did not respond.

And then, in view of the Commander¢s continuing verbal attacks on the Government, the Cabinet decided it would go ahead with its proposal for a legal opinion from the Supreme Court. It, therefore, asked His Excellency the President to refer the issue to the Court, in accordance with the Constitution.

For the Government and the RFMF, the sensible course was to await the clarification by the Court.

Unfortunately, instead of doing this, the Commander and the Army have launched a campaign of threats to force the Government to resign.

The Police, as I have said, have now started an independent inquiry into the Commander¢s threats to remove the lawfully elected Government of Fiji.

The Commander makes many untruthful allegations against the Government. He regularly expresses unsubstantiated accusations about widespread corruption. My position on this is very clear. The Government has taken a strong stand against corruption. Draft legislation to combat this is being prepared. In the meantime, the law enforcement authorities must be allowed to do their duty when allegations are made. Those making allegations against the Government must provide evidence to the Police.

When they do not do this there is a suspicion that these accusations are just a cover for a deeper agenda to overthrow a democratically- elected Government.

We must ask whether the Commander is being used or influenced by unscrupulous people opposed to certain items of legislation introduced by the Government. Is the Commander being manipulated by those with a certain political agenda?

If this is so, those involved are acting to serve their own purposes.

I declare emphatically that there is absolutely no question of me resigning in response to the current situation, or of my Government stepping down.

We have the constitutional authority and the support of the people to rule now and for the next five years.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Army is an important institution in Fiji . It is an agency of the State which has won international respect and acclaim for its service to international peacekeeping.

Whoever is Commander should be ever vigilant in protecting its integrity and reputation, and ensuring it follows the rule of law.

It should be a matter of serious concern to us all that officers who have stood for the professional values of loyalty and legality, are being pushed aside and relieved of their appointments.

Now let me repeat, that the Government I lead was legitimately elected in May this year. I was constitutionally appointed to form a Government by the President, acting in his own judgement.

His Excellency determined that I had the confidence of the House of Representatives. That confidence remains. It enabled me to appoint Fiji ¢s first Multi-Party Cabinet, comprising elected representatives of Fiji ¢s main communities. The Multi-Party Cabinet, as the executive arm of Government, is proceeding with an agenda that reflects the wishes of all the people of Fiji .

Members of the Cabinet together contributed to a new Strategic Development Plan that was recently endorsed at a National Economic Summit. The Plan provides a clear course and targets for Fiji ¢s growth in the next five years.

On Friday we will be announcing our 2007 Budget setting out our spending priorities and goals for the country in the next 12 months.

These policy and development initiatives are what we were elected to do.

As part of the Government¢s response to current events, I have today, with the authority of Cabinet, requested the Minister for Fijian Affairs Lands and Provincial Development, to consult with the Chairperson of the Great Council of Chiefs on convening a special meeting of the GCC next week.

It is crucially important for us to seek the advice of the GCC because the legislative measures the Commander says he is opposed to are being undertaken with the specific authorisation of the Council.

Furthermore, the GCC is a repository of chiefly wisdom and authority. I am sure you all agree there is a role for it in assisting to resolve the current crisis.

In 1987 and 2000 it demonstrated its ability to deal with the fundamental issues of peace and stability.

I give you now the same undertaking I have given to His Excellency the President. I have informed His Excellency that I am ready to engage in further discussions with the Commander on the issues that are of on-going concern to the Military. I will take part in such dialogue with an open mind, with a view to finding resolutions that serve the best interests of Fiji .

Having said, that I must also stress that the Army is under the control and authority of the elected Government.

The rule of law must prevail. No one is above the law, or has the right to interfere with the legal processes.

Fiji has previously experienced the tragedy and turmoil of illegal armed intervention in the business of the State. The last time this happened was in 2000.

One factor of compelling importance for the people of Fiji to be aware of, is that the international environment today is totally different from what it was in 1987 and 2000. The international community is now more proactive in protecting democratic governments when the rule of law and constitutionality are threatened or overturned. Our international friends are already coming out very strongly in support of the maintenance of democracy and constitutional rule in Fiji .

I have today received messages from the Governments of Australia, NZ and the United States . They too have expressed strong support for our elected Government. They have called on the Military to respect democracy and the rule of law. They are urging the Military to confine themselves to their proper role in a democracy.

If the Army fails to do this there will be dire consequences for Fiji . For a start, our tourism industry, our biggest direct employer and earner of foreign exchange, would be severely damaged. Thousands of jobs would be lost and ordinary people would suffer.

Following the crisis of 2000, the members of the Pacific Island Forum adopted the Biketawa Declaration. This Declaration provides the mandate for intervention by member governments at the invitation of the lawful authority in a Forum country affected by crisis.

Let me issue a warning, as well, that if the democratically elected Government of Fiji is overthrown, there is every likelihood this would severely prejudice the continued participation by Fiji in international peacekeeping operations.

I very much hope, then, that those in the Military, will keep in mind the catastrophic consequences of the threats that are being made against the elected Government of the people of Fiji .

I remain confident that sound judgement and wisdom will prevail about the overriding importance of the rule of law. I call on the churches and people to pray for our country.

Let us show the world that we have the ability and the will to solve our internal difficulties, as we have done before.

God bless you all, and God bless Fiji .

For response by Military Chief, go here.

The Australian military should not intervene in Fiji 's escalating political crisis, a Fijian academic has warned.

Australia is sending warships to the South Pacific nation to evacuate any Australians if needed amid fears of another coup as Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase refuses demands that he resign in a stand-off with the military.

However, a former member of Fiji 's Constitution Review Commission and Australian National University academic, Professor Brij Lai, says Australia should not use the ships for any military task.

"I think this would be hugely counter-productive because any scent of outside intervention will simply get the army's back up," he told the Nine Network.

"This is not the time for military intervention."

"This is a time for dialogue, for diplomacy for regional countries in the South Pacific, including Australia and New Zealand , to lend all the support they can to get the army and the government together," Professor Lai said.

But he said Mr Qarase should not be pushed into resigning.

"I don't think he should, I mean he is a democratically elected leader."

"The second point is it's the first time in the history of Fiji you have a multi-party Cabinet where members of the former opposition party are in government."

"This experiment must be allowed to succeed because if it doesn't, we don't have any future."

Tired...and watching events in the Pacific

For the last two days I've been doing the IDSS course in PPA in a Disaster Context...'twas fantastic, and now I'm exhausted. Tomorrow it's back to work, and then visiting Suva, Nadi, Vila, Honiara, POM, Lae and Madang all before Christmas...eek!!!!

Let's hope I don't find myself in the midst of a crisis while travelling.

There's presently fears of a coup in Fiji, and the PM's saying he won't resign.

Vanuatu's certainly not hitting the headlines in Australia at the moment, but there is the ongoing saga involving Moti, which is 'interesting' to say the least. PM Sogavare continues to threaten to order Australian troops to leave the Solomons. PNG hasn't really been in the news recently, but there was a volcanic eruption which disappeared from the media as quickly as it erupted, and via various email groups I'm on, Bougainville might not be hitting the headlines in Australia, but that doesn't mean everything's fine.

Here's a gratuitous shot of the volcanic eruption...I need more pictures on this blog, and it's better than the shots of dead people that arrived in my inbox courtesy of some friends overseas (thanks guys, I know you wanted to remind me what a bleak place the world can be, but I much prefer the cheesy "Why God Loves Women" emails!)

Huge clouds of ash billow from Mt Tavurvur after it erupted.
Photo: AAP

Edit 23/11/06: a new piece up on Radix, "VOLCANIC AND OTHER VICISSITUDES: THE DEEP-SEA PORT OF RABAUL" by James Lewis, October 2006. See here.