Update on East Gippsland floods

Hundreds of people have fled their homes and more are preparing to evacuate as rising floodwaters threaten to engulf more towns, including the regional centre of Sale. Vast areas of East Gippsland are under water, main roads and highways are closed, and numerous individuals and communities have been isolated by flooding and the effects of flooding (ie on power lines).

Damage to property is expected to run into millions of dollars, and authorities have warned that the worst flooding may be yet to come. Major flood warnings are current for the Mitchell, Avon, Macalister and Thomson rivers (I think that's 4/5 major rivers, the Tambo River being the 5th major river in East Gippsland??), with moderate warnings for 6 others.

The effects of fires in early 2007 (and perhaps 2003) can be seen in the Mitchell River, which is reportedly heavy with silt and ash from the fire-scarred mountains.

Many individuals and communities in East Gippsland and surrounding regions experience forms of vulnerability which are related to geography and infrastructure and are not experienced in other parts of the State. This is demonstrated by the story of a woman in the Monaro region, adjacent to the East Gippsland region. She made an emergency call from her isolated property at Michelago, a small settlement in the Monaro region. She was suffering an asthma attack, was cold, trapped in her house by a blizzard, and her power had been out for seven hours (something that few Melbournians would tolerate in the depths of winter!!). It took 14 firefighters and 4 ambulance officers 11 hours to reach the woman.

Residents flee rising floodwaters, There's water for miles, Breaking their banks, All stops out for snow rescue, The Age

Another Big Flood?

Almost a decade after The Big Flood, floods hit East Gippsland again.


I've been listening the reports and interviews with SES personnel for the last few days,
I undertook my first ever extensive research project in part of East Gippsland - and my focus happened to be "The Big Flood" of 1998.

In late June 1998, the Shire of East Gippsland (which lies in the far east of the state of Victoria, Australia) was declared to be in a State of Emergency following a one-in-100 year flood event. Media coverage of the “flood mayhem” ( "Flood mayhem: Gippsland braced for worst in 40 years". Herald Sun. Melbourne Wednesday June 24) tended to blame the “natural disaster” on “a record flood on top of a…drought” ("Natural disaster and a loss of hope". The Age. Melbourne Friday 3 July).

During the course of my research, I found that a historical analysis of the conditions creating and shaping vulnerability reveals that the disaster was not the result of an unusual coincidence of abnormal events in nature, but entirely foreseeable. While torrential rain may have provided the trigger for a ‘1-in-100 year flood’, the disaster that resulted was shaped by underlying conditions and processes which had existed for well over a century. These include the physiographic features that characterise much of East Gippsland, such as the harsh climatic conditions, steep terrain and poor soils, and characteristics of local economic and social activity, including limited access to transport, restricted access to markets, a small economic base, and depopulation. What a historical analysis reveals, however, is that at the core of flood disasters in the region, there has always been the coincidence of and interaction between drought, low commodity prices, and poor land management practices. This observation is articulated by A. M. Pearson in his book, Echoes from the Mountains, and has also been noted by local Landcare groups (Gippsland Community Reference Group, 1993, 20).

A historical analysis also revealed that while the biophysical, economic and social environment has always limited the ability of many of East Gippsland's residents to respond to further shocks, many of the conditions affecting vulnerability were heightened by changes occurring since the 1970s and accelerating during the 1990s. Factors that stood out included impact of economic liberalisation on farmers, the discovery of Ovine Johnes' Disease in the area, drought, and low commodity prices - the latter two of which contributed to overstocking, over-grazing, the growth of rabbit populations, and the difficult of feeding families let alone looking after fences and pastures. By the time rain fell in June 1998, a situation of extreme vulnerability had arisen.

Flood disasters are so often blamed on "chance" and "unusual weather events", yet the floods of 2007 have arisen as they did in 1998, 1990, and many times before that...a severe weather event with an intense low pressure system built across the east-coast of Victoria, moved back in on itself and dumped rain on areas suffering from drought. Snows have fallen in alpine areas, and the great rivers of East Gippsland have flooded. Residents of East Gippsland are familiar with flooding...in many areas, rivers flood every spring, and every 2-3 years, a particularly heavy fall of rain will cause flooding that results in erosion, and fence and pasture damage. The difference between a severe weather event and a "disaster" is the extent to which social, political, economic and pre-existing environmental pressures interact to structure and compound the impacts of the severe weather event.

The statistics this year indicate that this weather could surpass that of 1998. Some parts of East Gippsland are already experiencing more severe floods than they did in 1998. At present the damage appears to be far less severe than it was in 1998, and the floods are certainly not being called "a disaster", but it remains to be seen whether this will be the case, and if so, why. Many of the residents of East Gippsland have already experienced bushfires in 2003 and 2007, and damage caused by fire will, in some instances, have compounded the ongoing economic (and social) vulnerability arising from the ongoing drought, as well as pre-existing sources of vulnerability mentioned above. In addition, the effect of bushfire on the landscape exacerbates flooding in numerous complex ways (not least of which is obviously the denundation of land caused by fire).

Quake lifts island by several metres, affecting fishing, tourism

(AFP Photo)

'Solomons quake raises island from sea', reports Michael McKenna for The Australian:

A mountainous island has been lifted several metres out of the sea by the tumultuous seismic jolt that triggered the devastating Solomons tsunami. Ranongga Island is now surrounded by a moonscape of dying white and brown coral that has been exposed by the remarkable phenomenon that has extended the shoreline out to sea by up to 100m.

...

Villagers have been shocked by the aftermath of the seismic impact, which has uncovered the once-submerged reefs that their boats easily cleared until Monday's quake. One of the many sunken Japanese military vessels that litter the seabed around the island has also been uncovered - a relic of the area's fierce fighting between Allied and Japanese forces during World War II.

...

Solomons' geologists late yesterday also inspected the island, which has a lush, mountainous spine and appears to have been lifted between two and three metres out of the surrounding pristine waters.

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"People are very scared on the island. They don't know if this is temporary or permanent and if they should leave," he said.

...

In some parts, the shoreline has extended out to sea by up to 100m, with the waves now lapping the uncovered reef which rings the island.

Ranongga Island is a long, narrow, rugged island in the Western Province. The earthquake and tsunami has caused dramatic physical changes which are likely to have a psychological/emotional impact on the people of Ranongga - imagine waking up to find that the environment you've always known like the back of your hand has changed beyond recognition! Further, these changes are affecting livelihood security, as locals were heavily reliant on the reefs for fishing and shells for tools (here), . Livelihood security may also be negatively affected by a drop in tourism.