The economics of climate change...disasters and development...you join the dots...

So...everyone's talking about the Economics of Climate Change, the report compiled by Nicholas Stern, former World Bank Chief Economist on the Economics of Climate Change. You can download the whole report in pdf form here.

It's an accessible, well-argued, well-substantiated report outlining the overwhelming scientific evidence that climate change is a serious global threat and demands urgent, global reponses to combat that threat. As Wei puts it,

Warning! - Your risk to natural disasters is on the rise. We are seriously screwed... if you can't swim, at least learn to paddle.

If you live in a low lying area, take heed now and move to higher ground - if it's not a tsunami, the surf will be lapping on your rooftops by some time around 2035-50. Register now to become an 'environmental refugee', we will put you in a detention centre under the sea. It will be just like Finding Nemo!

Our esteemed Prime Minister has, however, warned us not to be mesmerised by the report. Don't worry Mr Howard, I'm not mesmerised - just wondering whether I should stop thinking about having kids so as to spare them the future. At least one of my friends has decided he's never going to have them, for that very reason. I used to think he was being paranoid and a hypochondriac...

The report makes the links between development and disasters clear:

Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.

Using the results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.

So in other words...climate change is associated with increased hazards, threats, risks, and that's going to have consequences for levels of social and economic development. Duh.

Not only is it going to cost us in financial terms, but it's actually CHEAPER to do something now!

In contrast, the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.

As usual, hazard events are going to hit the most vulnerable hardest, so they're going to cop the brunt of the consequences of us in the wealthy west having long showers, watching hours of widescreen tv, having the air con on even when it's only 25 outside, and driving our nice cars down to the shops for milk...

The most vulnerable - the poorest countries and populations - will suffer earliest and most, even though they have contributed least to the causes of climate change

And finally...

The scale of the challenge posed by climate change and adaptation makes it more urgent than ever that donor countries honour their commitments… Meeting the Millennium Development Goals already requires international assistance to support action by developing countries. Climate change - and the need for adaptation - will pose an additional challenge for countries’ growth and poverty reduction ambitions… Scaling up development assistance will therefore be essential.

So, now that you're feeling thoroughly depressed, there is something really easy to do...TOMORROW!!


WALK AGAINST WARMING

Temperatures rise in Fiji

Some of the alerts arriving in my inbox...

On another note, despite suggestions to the contrary on the DFAT website, nobody seems to think much is going on in the Solomon Islands. Phew!


WEDNESDAY 5PM 1 NOVEMBER 2006

FIJI'S PRIME MINISTERS OFFICE: PRIME MINISTER LAISENIA QARASE

WEDNESDAY 1 NOVEMBER 2006

ADDRESS TO THE NATION

Good evening my fellow citizens.

I address you this evening about events involving the Republic of Fiji Military Forces that are causing so much anxiety, uncertainty, and fear in our land. This is related specifically to public threats by the Commander of the Army to overthrow the elected Government of Fiji. This is the Government I was given the mandate to lead in the May General Election.

I can affirm that the Police are continuing their investigations into the threats by the Commander. I expect that the Army will respect the authority of the Police and will fully cooperate in these investigations.

Now, over the past few months, I have exercised great patience in my attitude to the various statements by the Commander, condemning the Government for a whole variety of reasons.

Following developments yesterday and renewed threats as reported in the media, I called meetings this morning of the National Security Council and the Multi-Party Cabinet, comprising SDL and Fiji Labour Party Ministers.

I now wish to explain the actions we are taking.

To begin with, let me take you back to a meeting convened earlier this year by His Excellency the Vice President, in his capacity as Acting President. I attended that meeting along with the Commander of the RFMF. Its purpose was to create a positive and open atmosphere for dialogue on issues of concern raised by the Military. I readily agreed to this because I have always favoured this approach to solving problems. It is consistent with the good-faith principles called for by our Constitution for settling differences.

There was also agreement that the Commander would not make public statements without clearing them first with the Prime Minister.

I met with the Commander under these arrangements. The problem that immediately arose was he expected me to virtually follow his orders.

As Head of a democratically- elected Government I could not do that.

It wasn¢t long before the Commander again began to go public, in breach of the agreement he had reached with the Acting President and me.

To justify this, he attempted to argue that the Army had a broad mandate to ensure the well being of Fiji and its people. This, he claimed, had been transferred to the 1997 Constitution from the 1990 document.

The prevailing view among legal experts, however, is that the Commander¢s interpretation is wrong.

Our present Constitution legitimises the existence of the RFMF, but not the broadened responsibilities given to it in the 1990 Constitution. In other words, the constitutional and statutory authority of the RFMF is strictly confined to maintaining and safeguarding national security within a democracy.

The Cabinet, therefore, decided to seek clarification from the Supreme Court on the role of the Military. This was a reasonable position to take, given the circumstances. It also reflected our desire for a conclusive legal finding. The Constitution allows for this procedure.

The Minister of Home Affairs was asked to consult with the RFMF to establish joint terms of reference for the approach to the Supreme Court.

The Army did not respond.

And then, in view of the Commander¢s continuing verbal attacks on the Government, the Cabinet decided it would go ahead with its proposal for a legal opinion from the Supreme Court. It, therefore, asked His Excellency the President to refer the issue to the Court, in accordance with the Constitution.

For the Government and the RFMF, the sensible course was to await the clarification by the Court.

Unfortunately, instead of doing this, the Commander and the Army have launched a campaign of threats to force the Government to resign.

The Police, as I have said, have now started an independent inquiry into the Commander¢s threats to remove the lawfully elected Government of Fiji.

The Commander makes many untruthful allegations against the Government. He regularly expresses unsubstantiated accusations about widespread corruption. My position on this is very clear. The Government has taken a strong stand against corruption. Draft legislation to combat this is being prepared. In the meantime, the law enforcement authorities must be allowed to do their duty when allegations are made. Those making allegations against the Government must provide evidence to the Police.

When they do not do this there is a suspicion that these accusations are just a cover for a deeper agenda to overthrow a democratically- elected Government.

We must ask whether the Commander is being used or influenced by unscrupulous people opposed to certain items of legislation introduced by the Government. Is the Commander being manipulated by those with a certain political agenda?

If this is so, those involved are acting to serve their own purposes.

I declare emphatically that there is absolutely no question of me resigning in response to the current situation, or of my Government stepping down.

We have the constitutional authority and the support of the people to rule now and for the next five years.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Army is an important institution in Fiji . It is an agency of the State which has won international respect and acclaim for its service to international peacekeeping.

Whoever is Commander should be ever vigilant in protecting its integrity and reputation, and ensuring it follows the rule of law.

It should be a matter of serious concern to us all that officers who have stood for the professional values of loyalty and legality, are being pushed aside and relieved of their appointments.

Now let me repeat, that the Government I lead was legitimately elected in May this year. I was constitutionally appointed to form a Government by the President, acting in his own judgement.

His Excellency determined that I had the confidence of the House of Representatives. That confidence remains. It enabled me to appoint Fiji ¢s first Multi-Party Cabinet, comprising elected representatives of Fiji ¢s main communities. The Multi-Party Cabinet, as the executive arm of Government, is proceeding with an agenda that reflects the wishes of all the people of Fiji .

Members of the Cabinet together contributed to a new Strategic Development Plan that was recently endorsed at a National Economic Summit. The Plan provides a clear course and targets for Fiji ¢s growth in the next five years.

On Friday we will be announcing our 2007 Budget setting out our spending priorities and goals for the country in the next 12 months.

These policy and development initiatives are what we were elected to do.

As part of the Government¢s response to current events, I have today, with the authority of Cabinet, requested the Minister for Fijian Affairs Lands and Provincial Development, to consult with the Chairperson of the Great Council of Chiefs on convening a special meeting of the GCC next week.

It is crucially important for us to seek the advice of the GCC because the legislative measures the Commander says he is opposed to are being undertaken with the specific authorisation of the Council.

Furthermore, the GCC is a repository of chiefly wisdom and authority. I am sure you all agree there is a role for it in assisting to resolve the current crisis.

In 1987 and 2000 it demonstrated its ability to deal with the fundamental issues of peace and stability.

I give you now the same undertaking I have given to His Excellency the President. I have informed His Excellency that I am ready to engage in further discussions with the Commander on the issues that are of on-going concern to the Military. I will take part in such dialogue with an open mind, with a view to finding resolutions that serve the best interests of Fiji .

Having said, that I must also stress that the Army is under the control and authority of the elected Government.

The rule of law must prevail. No one is above the law, or has the right to interfere with the legal processes.

Fiji has previously experienced the tragedy and turmoil of illegal armed intervention in the business of the State. The last time this happened was in 2000.

One factor of compelling importance for the people of Fiji to be aware of, is that the international environment today is totally different from what it was in 1987 and 2000. The international community is now more proactive in protecting democratic governments when the rule of law and constitutionality are threatened or overturned. Our international friends are already coming out very strongly in support of the maintenance of democracy and constitutional rule in Fiji .

I have today received messages from the Governments of Australia, NZ and the United States . They too have expressed strong support for our elected Government. They have called on the Military to respect democracy and the rule of law. They are urging the Military to confine themselves to their proper role in a democracy.

If the Army fails to do this there will be dire consequences for Fiji . For a start, our tourism industry, our biggest direct employer and earner of foreign exchange, would be severely damaged. Thousands of jobs would be lost and ordinary people would suffer.

Following the crisis of 2000, the members of the Pacific Island Forum adopted the Biketawa Declaration. This Declaration provides the mandate for intervention by member governments at the invitation of the lawful authority in a Forum country affected by crisis.

Let me issue a warning, as well, that if the democratically elected Government of Fiji is overthrown, there is every likelihood this would severely prejudice the continued participation by Fiji in international peacekeeping operations.

I very much hope, then, that those in the Military, will keep in mind the catastrophic consequences of the threats that are being made against the elected Government of the people of Fiji .

I remain confident that sound judgement and wisdom will prevail about the overriding importance of the rule of law. I call on the churches and people to pray for our country.

Let us show the world that we have the ability and the will to solve our internal difficulties, as we have done before.

God bless you all, and God bless Fiji .

For response by Military Chief, go here.

The Australian military should not intervene in Fiji 's escalating political crisis, a Fijian academic has warned.

Australia is sending warships to the South Pacific nation to evacuate any Australians if needed amid fears of another coup as Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase refuses demands that he resign in a stand-off with the military.

However, a former member of Fiji 's Constitution Review Commission and Australian National University academic, Professor Brij Lai, says Australia should not use the ships for any military task.

"I think this would be hugely counter-productive because any scent of outside intervention will simply get the army's back up," he told the Nine Network.

"This is not the time for military intervention."

"This is a time for dialogue, for diplomacy for regional countries in the South Pacific, including Australia and New Zealand , to lend all the support they can to get the army and the government together," Professor Lai said.

But he said Mr Qarase should not be pushed into resigning.

"I don't think he should, I mean he is a democratically elected leader."

"The second point is it's the first time in the history of Fiji you have a multi-party Cabinet where members of the former opposition party are in government."

"This experiment must be allowed to succeed because if it doesn't, we don't have any future."

Tired...and watching events in the Pacific

For the last two days I've been doing the IDSS course in PPA in a Disaster Context...'twas fantastic, and now I'm exhausted. Tomorrow it's back to work, and then visiting Suva, Nadi, Vila, Honiara, POM, Lae and Madang all before Christmas...eek!!!!

Let's hope I don't find myself in the midst of a crisis while travelling.

There's presently fears of a coup in Fiji, and the PM's saying he won't resign.

Vanuatu's certainly not hitting the headlines in Australia at the moment, but there is the ongoing saga involving Moti, which is 'interesting' to say the least. PM Sogavare continues to threaten to order Australian troops to leave the Solomons. PNG hasn't really been in the news recently, but there was a volcanic eruption which disappeared from the media as quickly as it erupted, and via various email groups I'm on, Bougainville might not be hitting the headlines in Australia, but that doesn't mean everything's fine.

Here's a gratuitous shot of the volcanic eruption...I need more pictures on this blog, and it's better than the shots of dead people that arrived in my inbox courtesy of some friends overseas (thanks guys, I know you wanted to remind me what a bleak place the world can be, but I much prefer the cheesy "Why God Loves Women" emails!)

Huge clouds of ash billow from Mt Tavurvur after it erupted.
Photo: AAP

Edit 23/11/06: a new piece up on Radix, "VOLCANIC AND OTHER VICISSITUDES: THE DEEP-SEA PORT OF RABAUL" by James Lewis, October 2006. See here.

Pain in the Arts 2006!

Pain in the Arts Exhibition

November 01, 2006

Credo Community Arts Group: Pain in the Arts, has runs weekly in Credo Café for the past three years with the support of the city of Melbourne through there arts grants program, this year saw the start of the Credo Creative Writing Group.

These groups are based on the understanding that creative expression plays a crucial role within society, and that it has considerable therapeutic benefits. As such, they strive to offer marginalised people the access to space, resources and instruction that enables the development of healthy creative expression.

To celebrate the achievements of the groups this year we are holding a showcase exhibition and limited run publication Credo: Creative Anthology both of which will be launched...

inner-city-outer-circle:

words and pictures from the margins in melbourne

Opening Night
November 8th
6:00 - 7:45pm
The Gallery @City Library 253 Flinders Lane

the exhibition will run until the 28th of November

We will be remembered for this...

A vulnerable population in our midst, but out of sight and out of mind...

Remember - Julian Burnside's Speech for Refugee Week
LAUNCH OF REFUGEE WEEK, 22 October 2006

Remember what you were doing last night at 7.00 pm? When you try to reconstruct it, it’s quite a long time ago. Perhaps you had dinner with friends, a few drinks and a show, a cosy night in a warm bed; a long sleep-in and the Sunday papers, a relaxed breakfast and an easy day before battling with the traffic to get here. It’s 22 hours ago.

Twenty-two hours can seem quite a long time: try standing motionless for 22 hours without food or water.

When the SIEV X sank on the 19th October, 2001 it took 22 hours for 353 people to drown. Most of them were women and children. There were just 45 survivors.

Twenty-two hours is a very long time floating, crying, praying … drowning.

The Australian Government is responsible for those deaths. Of course they didn’t kill the 353 refugees, but they knew that they were setting out; they knew they were boarding a dangerous, overcrowded boat; they knew which way the boat would be heading. Operation Relex had the area under surveillance but, amazingly, did not see anything: it did not see the boat as it sank, it did not see 353 drowning over the course of 22 hours.

The reason those people embarked on their dangerous voyage was to join their husbands and fathers who were already living in Australia, already recognized as refugees, already on protection visas. But the protection visas they had were only temporary protection visas, which carried the condition that they were not eligible for family reunion. Despite their claimed support for family values, the Coalition Government denied these families the opportunity to be reunited and so the families did what families do: they tried to get back together by any means available. Three hundred and fifty-three people drowned as a result.

The Government recognized the responsibility it bore, so it lied. First it lied about the place where the boat went down, and then it lied about whether it knew the boat was coming at all.

Remember the 353 who died that day: they are our conscience.

Remember Shayan Badrie. Shayan Badrie was the little six year old Iranian boy who had been reduced to a state of helpless paralysis by his experiences in detention. Each time he got to the point where he could not eat or drink anymore, he would be removed from Villawood and sent to a psychiatric hospital. As soon as he was well enough, he was sent back to detention against the advice of psychiatrists. Shayan Badrie’s fate was first seen on television because a brave refugee advocate smuggled out secret video footage of Shayan, lying like a limp rag-doll in his father’s arms. He was a pathetic sight. Confronted with these images on public television, Mr Ruddock five times referred to Shayan as “it”. He said that “it” was like this not because of detention but because “it” had a stepmother. All that from the man who still has the effrontery to wear the Amnesty International badge.

Remember the Iranian family who were moved from Woomera to Maribyrnong in early 2002. They were moved because their experiences in Woomera had reduced them all to the point of psychiatric collapse. Worst in the family was the 11 year old girl who, as the psychiatrists had said, desperately needed immediate psychiatric care. Despite the advice of the psychiatrists, the Department did nothing to help that child and on a Sunday evening in May 2002, while she was alone in her room, she took a bed-sheet and hanged herself.

Remember the report of HREOC which condemned every aspect of Australia’s system of holding children in indefinite mandatory detention.

The two people who bear principal responsibility for these things are John Howard and Philip Ruddock. They personally oversaw, encouraged and took political benefit from the cruelest refugee regime this country has ever seen; a system crueler than that known in any other Western country.

Remember John Howard and Philip Ruddock.
Remember their role.
Remember the lies they have told and remember the truths they have concealed.
Remember them: they are our representatives.
Remember how hard it is to be a refugee, especially a refugee in a land which has treated you with open hostility until eventually, reluctantly it gives you temporary protection.
Remember the difficulties and confusion of dealing with a petty bureaucracy.
Remember the hardship of trying to live on a bridging visa E, denied the right to work or to study or to receive Centrelink benefits; denied even the right to do voluntary work for the simple dignity that work can bring.
Remember that getting out of detention is not the end, it is the beginning.
Remember the refugees in our community and remember what we have done to them.
Remember them: because they are our future.

As we launch into Refugee Week 2006, remember.

Remember.